India Meteorological Department Launches AI System to Predict Monsoon Four Weeks in Advance

Both these prediction facilities will come in handy in terms of crop planning, city waterlogging and disaster management and relief measures.

Union Minister of State for Science and Technology and Earth Sciences, Dr. Jitendra Singh, launched both systems on Tuesday. The first system is an AI-based forecast of the progress of the monsoon, and the second is the Uttar Pradesh High Spatial Resolution Rainfall Forecasting Service.

These systems have been jointly developed by the IMD, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting.

The AI-based monsoon system will release monsoon forecasts every Wednesday for the next four weeks. This service is designed for 16 states and over 3,000 sub-districts. This will enable timely decisions regarding sowing, irrigation, fertilizer management, and crop protection.

This system integrates AI models, extended-range forecasting systems, and technologies. Until now, long-range weather forecasts were limited to large geographical areas, but the new technology will be able to provide information down to the district and sub-district level.

The High Spatial Resolution Rainfall Forecasting System launched in Uttar Pradesh will provide greater granularity to weather services, enabling predictions of rainfall within every kilometer.

It utilizes automatic rain gauges, Doppler radar, and satellite-based data. This will allow accurate predictions of the intensity and timing of rainfall in different areas, even within a district or city.

Such hyper-local services will not be limited to agriculture. They will also be widely used in preventing waterlogging in urban areas, traffic management, air traffic control, power distribution, reservoir operations, and disaster management.

In the event of heavy rainfall or sudden weather changes, the administration will be able to prepare in advance. Ten years ago, there were only 16-17 Doppler radars in the country. Now, their number has reached 50.

Under Mission Mausam, 50 more radars are planned. The accuracy of forecasting severe weather events has improved by 40 percent over the past ten years. Predictions of cyclone direction, intensity, and landfall time have also become more reliable than ever before.