Crude Oil Price Crosses $100 Per Barrel: India Faces Higher Import Bill, Inflation and Rupee Pressure

The earlier figure released by the finance ministry suggests that every $10 per barrel hike means a cost of $13-14 billion for India each year. This directly impacts the balance of payments (differences between the money coming in and going out of the country through international trade).

This has been one of the major reasons mentioned for the fall in the rupee this year. In fact, yesterday when crude oil breached $100 levels, rupee lost 34 paise and closed at 95.08 per dollar.

State-owned oil companies are likely to be the first to be affected. At the average price of September, state-owned oil companies are incurring a loss of Rs 5 per liter on petrol and Rs 23 per liter on diesel. However, under-recovery on domestic LPG is running at Rs 200 per cylinder. However, this is significantly lower than in April 2026.

According to data from the government's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), India purchased crude oil at an average price of $102.11 per barrel in September. This is more than 10 percent higher than in August 2026. The average purchase price in August was $90.19 per barrel.

In July, it was $82.04, in June $83.22, in May $106.23, and in April $114.48 per barrel. Clearly, after four months, India is again paying more than $100.

This is why the import bill during April-July in the current financial year 2026-27 increased by more than 56 percent to $63.4 billion, while the import volume remained roughly the same as last year (81.9 million tons).

In the April-June quarter alone, the bill had reached nearly $50 billion. India's crude oil import bill stood at $121.8 billion in the financial year 2025-26, lower than $137.2 billion in the previous year.