The monsoon has picked pace after nearly three weeks of no significant rains in the country. The monsoon has traversed through Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, and now it seems to be on its way to Delhi NCR, Haryana, and Punjab.
According to IMD, the monsoon will be reaching Delhi in the next 24 to 48 hours, which would provide relief from the humid weather conditions of North India. Despite fears of El Niño, the current climate scenario in the region continues to favor the arrival of the monsoon.
This monsoon rush comes against the backdrop of June having experienced 40 percent fewer rains this year compared to June of the last 12 years. The country witnessed an overall rainfall of 99.5 mm by the end of June while, in June 2014, the monsoon delivered 92.8 mm of rainfall. This was the third driest June in the last hundred years.
The monsoon has accelerated in the last two days. It has reached some areas of Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh, covering most of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. In the next few days, it will advance into the remaining parts of Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, and Gujarat.
If this pace continues, the monsoon could cover the entire country within four to five days. Favorable conditions developing in early July and the continued inflow of moisture from the Bay of Bengal could significantly compensate for the June deficit.
According to Skymet, the monsoon is being supported by favorable weather systems. Four cyclonic circulations are active in the Bay of Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, the Western Himalayan region, and the Sindh region of Pakistan. A trough has formed from Punjab to Bengal. The combined effect of all these systems is providing additional energy to the monsoon and rapidly increasing rainfall activity.
Conditions for rain will become favorable in Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, and western Uttar Pradesh starting Thursday. Subsequently, many areas may experience heavy rainfall during the first ten days of July. Temperatures have already begun to drop in these areas, and the weather is becoming more pleasant than before.
Parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Rajasthan may receive good rainfall in the first week of July. The Meteorological Department has predicted the formation of a low-pressure area in the northwest Bay of Bengal around July 3rd. This system could strengthen the monsoon as it moves westward.
A warning has been issued for heavy to very heavy rain, thunderstorms, and strong winds in several districts of Uttar Pradesh over the next 24 hours. Cloudy skies and rain are also expected in the National Capital Region (NCR). Gujarat is among the vulnerable areas, where the risk of excessive rainfall remains.
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