India Gradually Shifts Crude Oil Strategy as Saudi Arabia Rises as Top Supplier

In the context of global sanctions and geopolitical pressure, India has started a balanced shift in its crude oil import policy. Recent data suggests that Saudi Arabia is once again becoming the largest crude oil supplier to India, while oil imports from Russia are declining. However, this is not being done in a hurry, but in a phased manner.

India’s total crude oil imports between February 1 and 18 averaged 4.85 million barrels per day, which is about 8 percent lower than the 5.25 million barrels per day that India imported in January. According to the data available on shipping activity, India’s imports from Russia were 1.28 million barrels per day in December 2025. This has come down to 1.22 million barrels per day in January and 1.09 million barrels per day in early February. Experts estimate that it could remain between 8 and 10 million barrels per day in March.

After the Ukraine war, India increased its purchases of Russian oil at discounted rates. At one point, Russia became India's largest supplier, accounting for approximately 40 percent of total imports. However, new US and EU sanctions have now put pressure on Russian oil. Problems related to payment, shipping, and insurance have also impacted flows.

Amid declining imports from Russia, supplies from Saudi Arabia have increased. Imports from Saudi Arabia could reach 1 million to 1.1 million barrels per day in February, the highest level since November 2019. Based on current trends, Saudi Arabia could become India's largest supplier in February, followed by Russia and Iraq.

Experts say that the decline in Russian oil prices could increase average costs by $2 to $3 per barrel. Buying a limited amount of cheap oil from Venezuela may provide some relief, but it cannot completely replace Russia. Venezuela's supply is limited due to production and logistical limitations.

Analysts believe that India is not completely distancing itself from Russia, but rather striking a balance. Minimum essential imports from Russia may continue to meet domestic fuel supplies and refinery operations. This balanced policy is likely to continue until the India-US trade agreement is finalized. Now, for India, pricing and geopolitical dynamics have become equally important.