India will drive global oil demand by 2035, claims IEA report

Globally, oil demand growth is slowing under the Stated Policy Scenario (STEPS). This is causing significant challenges for major oil-producing countries. These countries may face an oversupply situation as additional crude oil production capacity is expected to increase to 8 mb/d by 2030. The IEA has also warned of potential near-term disruptions in oil and gas supplies due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

According to the IEA report, about 20 percent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies currently pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint in the region.

Despite these risks, the report fended that prices may stabilize in the longer term, in view of easing market balance and slower oil demand growth.

Besides, a structural shift is sweeping the transport sector. In the past ten years, road transport has added 4.2 mb/d to oil demand, or almost half of the overall increase in global oil demand, the report said.

This is changing, however, with a fall of 1 mb/d in oil demand for passenger cars in 2030. It is one of the main elements in the peak seen in global oil demand at the end of this decade in STEPS. Meanwhile, looking ahead, new LNG projects could add about 50% of the current world export capacity by 2030, further transforming the global energy landscape. While all countries are adapting to changes in the global energy landscape, India's rising demand for energy will take center stage in shaping global oil markets, according to the report.