IMD: Below-Normal Rainfall in September Amid El Nino

Spatially, the forecast indicates that many parts of the country are expected to receive below-normal rainfall. However, some pockets — including areas in the northwest, northeast, east, east-central and southeast peninsular India — are likely to see normal to above-normal rainfall.

The probabilistic forecast of tercile rainfall categories (above normal, normal and below normal) indicates widespread below-normal rainfall across large portions of the country.

Warmer Days and Nights Ahead

The temperature outlook is equally telling. Monthly average maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country. Monthly average minimum temperatures are also expected to be above normal over most regions — with the exception of some parts of northwest, west-central and northeast India, where they are likely to be normal to below normal.

In other words: warmer days and warmer nights are on the horizon across most of India in September — a combination that has direct implications for public health, energy demand and water stress.

The El Nino Factor

The IMD attributes the forecast to a significant global climatic driver. Currently, strong El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. These conditions are expected to strengthen further in the coming months.

El Nino, a periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has historically been associated with weaker monsoon activity over India. That correlation, well established through decades of climatological data, is now expected to play out in the second half of India's current monsoon season.

The World Meteorological Organization has also flagged that El Nino is expected to intensify further through the northern hemisphere autumn — reinforcing the case for continued rainfall deficiency risks across the Indian subcontinent.

The IOD Situation

Alongside El Nino, another important climate factor being closely watched is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). At present, neutral IOD conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean. Forecasts from IMD's Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) suggest that neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist through September.

However, some international climate centres indicate a possible transition to positive IOD conditions from September onwards — a shift that could partially help India's rainfall pattern later in the season, since a positive IOD is generally associated with enhanced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.

The Real-World Impact

The IMD has been clear about what a below-normal September could mean on the ground. Below-normal rainfall can adversely affect agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, ecosystem sustainability and drinking water availability — while also increasing the risk of heat stress in several regions.

That's a long list of consequences, and each carries its own economic and social weight. September is particularly critical because it marks the tail end of the monsoon season — a period when standing kharif crops, reservoir levels and groundwater recharge patterns are all shaped by late-season rainfall.

The IMD's Advisory

Responding to the forecast, the IMD has advised timely preparedness measures across sectors. These include water conservation efforts, efficient resource management and agricultural contingency planning by concerned agencies and stakeholders.

For state governments, agricultural extension services, urban water utilities, power distribution companies and disaster management authorities, that guidance now becomes a critical actionable input for the weeks ahead.

Why It Matters

India's monsoon shapes the country's economy in ways few other single natural phenomena do. Below-normal rainfall doesn't just mean drier days. It can translate into weaker kharif yields, reduced reservoir storage, tighter groundwater availability, higher energy demand, and pressure on drinking water supply systems in vulnerable geographies.

For millions of Indian farmers whose sowing decisions, harvest planning and financial security are directly tied to monsoon rainfall, September's outcome carries genuine consequence. For urban planners and utilities in cities that depend on reservoir-fed water systems, the outlook signals the need to closely monitor storage levels heading into the dry season.

Sectoral Impact

For agriculture, the risks are concentrated in regions where rainfall is expected to underperform significantly. Kharif crops still in the field could face moisture stress, and rabi sowing prospects — dependent on residual soil moisture and reservoir irrigation — may need contingency planning.

For hydropower, reduced late-season rainfall could impact water availability for generation. Combined with above-normal temperatures raising demand for cooling and electricity, this creates a challenging equation for the power sector.

For drinking water, urban and rural utilities alike may need to intensify water conservation messaging, tighten distribution planning and prepare for potential summer-heat carryover into the post-monsoon season.

The Bigger Climate Picture

The IMD's forecast also fits into a broader climate story unfolding globally. El Nino events have historically driven volatile weather patterns worldwide — from droughts in Asia and Australia to intense rainfall in the Americas. With WMO indicating that the current El Nino is likely to strengthen further through the northern autumn, weather-driven risks across multiple sectors are being flagged not just in India, but across many parts of the world.

In this global context, India's September forecast is a piece of a much larger climate puzzle — one that policymakers, scientists and citizens are increasingly having to learn to navigate together.

Institutional Preparedness

For state disaster management authorities, agriculture departments and water resource agencies, the coming weeks will require careful planning. Rainfall shortfalls need to be tracked at the district level. Reservoir levels need to be monitored closely. Contingency plans for drinking water supply need to be reviewed. Agricultural advisory services will need to guide farmers on crop management and water use.

The IMD will issue the forecast for the Northeast Monsoon Season (October to December 2026) and the rainfall and temperature outlook for October towards the end of September — an important next reference point for how the closing months of 2026 may unfold across India.

The Bigger Picture

The IMD's September 2026 outlook is a reminder that even as India's economy continues to grow and its digital infrastructure continues to expand, the country's fundamentals are still deeply tied to the rhythms of the monsoon. A drier, warmer September carries implications for millions of livelihoods, thousands of villages, hundreds of cities and dozens of critical sectors.

But the outlook is also an opportunity. For water conservation programmes, for agricultural resilience planning, for renewable energy strategy, and for climate-smart urban planning, this forecast is precisely the kind of early warning that allows preparedness measures to be activated in time. Because the difference between a difficult September and a devastating one often comes down to how seriously such warnings are heeded, and how quickly they are acted upon.

For now, the message from the IMD is clear. Expect less rain. Expect more heat. Plan accordingly. And as India steps into September, that guidance may well be the most important weather update of the season.