CMIE Report: Financial condition of urban families improved due to reduction in interest rates and inflation, decline in rural sentiments

Urban households' financial situation has been improving significantly on account of a decline in interest and inflation. This can be inferred from the Urban Consumer Sentiment Index, which increased for the second month running to 108.8 in April, which is a one-year high. It was 107.7 in March and 104.3 in February. Tensions between India and Pakistan are likely to further upset sentiments, says the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).

According to CMIE, there has been a good increase in urban perceptions in March-April 2025. Urban families appeared excited about their current economic conditions and were also optimistic about future prospects. The jump in perceptions must be broad-based. It is not limited to families of a particular business group. Perceptions of urban business-engaged families, salaried families and families of small traders and daily wage laborers have also increased. The urban index of current economic conditions (ICC) increased by 0.8 percent in April and 4.5 percent in March. The urban ICC declined by one percent in three months. ICC tells the assessment of the current income of families. It also tells whether this is the right time to buy consumer durables.

ICC increased from 34.3 percent in February to 39.4 percent in April. People believe that this is a good time to buy consumer durables. The proportion of such people increased from 32.2 percent in February to 36.7 percent in April. The proportion of pessimistic families decreased in both cases during this period.

In April, 42.2 percent of families believed that their family would be in a better financial position after a year. However, this is a stable figure. The proportion of pessimistic families fell to a little less than four percent compared to 5.1 percent in March. This increased the net optimism about future income. This is the difference between optimistic and pessimistic families.

The Urban Consumer Expectation Index (ICE) has also increased in March-April. It increased by 2.4 percent in March and 1.3 percent in April. It includes the expectations of families about financial prospects one year ahead and their view on business conditions five years ahead. In this, the proportion of optimistic urban families has increased in March and April. Pessimism decreased.

There is enthusiasm about the current economic conditions and future expectations in all urban occupational groups. One-third of the population living in urban India is salaried.

The Rural Consumer Sentiment Index has fallen by 1.9 percent. In April, it went to 111, which is the lowest level since 111.9 in December. It was 114.1 in March and 112.8 in February. A sharper decline could be a matter of concern. However, this decline has nothing to do with the current conditions of the rural people. The expectations of rural families about their future have been becoming increasingly optimistic for two consecutive months, while the current situation was becoming negative.