Government may keep fiscal deficit and disinvestment target low in the interim budget, estimated to be at six percent of GDP

Rating agency ICRA has estimated the fiscal deficit at 5.3 per cent and the disinvestment target at less than Rs 50,000 crore in the interim budget for the financial year 2024-25. Apart from this, GDP is estimated to be at six per cent, which is slightly higher than the estimate of 5.9 per cent in the budget presented on February 1 last year.

In its expectations report for the interim budget of 2024–25, ICRA stated that collections of central GST and direct tax are anticipated to surpass the budget forecast for 2023–24 by Rs 10,000 crore and Rs 1 lakh crore, respectively. According to the agency, the Centre may spend Rs 75,000 crore less on capital projects than the Rs 10 lakh crore budgeted amount. It will still be 26% higher annually even after this. This growth rate, however, is less than the budget's estimated 35.9% for the previous fiscal year.

On the disinvestment target, ICRA said, considering the ongoing uncertainties in terms of deals, a target of less than Rs 50,000 crore for 2024-25 seems appropriate. The government has raised Rs 10,000 crore from disinvestment in the current financial year.