A surprise may well be in store for the common citizen before Diwali. Oxford Economics’ lead economist has forecasted that there might be a slight hike in the cost of petrol and diesel by the central government in November.

According to Alexandra Harman Prasad, lead economist at Oxford Economics, a rise in prices in November would mean that the rise in prices will amount to half of the 7.5 percent rise in prices in May when there was a US-Iran war going on.

In its report, Oxford Economics has identified the states where elections are to take place next year, which include Goa, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur, Uttar Pradesh (UP elections 2027), Himachal Pradesh, and Gujarat, where the government can take such a step before starting its election campaign.

There could be a direct effect of an increase in the cost of petrol and diesel in November as far as inflation is concerned. It has been forecast that this can lead to a rise in retail inflation to 6.2 percent in the October-December quarter, and even to 6.5 percent in Q1 2027.

This figure would be above the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) target of 2 to 6 percent. However, if the government does not increase prices in November, inflation estimates could receive a 10 to 30 basis point reduction, but inflation will still remain high.

To control rising inflation, the RBI may further increase the repo rate in upcoming meetings. The report also stated that retail inflation rose to 5.54 percent in September, the highest since 2024.

In such a situation, this change in petrol and diesel prices will directly impact the budget of the general public, which is being closely monitored.

A surprise may well be in store for the common citizen before Diwali. Oxford Economics’ lead economist has forecasted that there might be a slight hike in the cost of petrol and diesel by the central government in November.

According to Alexandra Harman Prasad, lead economist at Oxford Economics, a rise in prices in November would mean that the rise in prices will amount to half of the 7.5 percent rise in prices in May when there was a US-Iran war going on.

In its report, Oxford Economics has identified the states where elections are to take place next year, which include Goa, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur, Uttar Pradesh (UP elections 2027), Himachal Pradesh, and Gujarat, where the government can take such a step before starting its election campaign.

There could be a direct effect of an increase in the cost of petrol and diesel in November as far as inflation is concerned. It has been forecast that this can lead to a rise in retail inflation to 6.2 percent in the October-December quarter, and even to 6.5 percent in Q1 2027.

This figure would be above the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) target of 2 to 6 percent. However, if the government does not increase prices in November, inflation estimates could receive a 10 to 30 basis point reduction, but inflation will still remain high.

To control rising inflation, the RBI may further increase the repo rate in upcoming meetings. The report also stated that retail inflation rose to 5.54 percent in September, the highest since 2024.

In such a situation, this change in petrol and diesel prices will directly impact the budget of the general public, which is being closely monitored.