According to the Meteorological Department's assessment, even if the monsoon is weak this year, it is not disappointing for farmers. The country's major reservoirs currently have sufficient water, which can help protect agriculture from initial shocks. The Meteorological Department has predicted below-normal rainfall due to the impact of El Niño, but existing water storage may provide relief to farmers.

According to the Central Water Commission, the country's 166 major reservoirs currently hold approximately 82 billion cubic meters of water, which is higher than the 69.75 billion cubic meters at the same time last year. Furthermore, it is also higher than the previous ten-year average of 64.61 billion cubic meters. This means that reservoirs are relatively strong at the beginning of this summer.

Clearly, there is enough water in reservoirs to support agriculture in the event of a weak monsoon. The benefit of storing water is dependent on the monsoon season. The water storage in India has the capacity to store 183.56 billion cubic meters, out of which 45 percent has been stored.

Previously, in February, the water storage was at around 66 percent, while currently it stands at 45 percent. This decrease occurs during each monsoon season due to increased use of water. However, this scenario does not imply any adverse effects.

Currently, the latter stages of the Rabi crop are being produced, and irrigation is required. During May and June, preparation of the Kharif crop is initiated, requiring water for sowing of crops such as rice, corn, and pulses.

In such a situation, water from reservoirs can support crops, especially if the monsoon starts weak. However, the future picture will depend entirely on the monsoon's performance.

If the monsoon comes on time and is normal in June, reservoirs will start to fill up quickly, which will help with water problems a lot. But if the rain is late or not evenly spread out, the pressure on reservoirs could go up. Because of continued withdrawals, water levels in some places are expected to drop sharply by July and August.

In such a situation, the challenge will be not only water availability but also its efficient management. While existing storage provides initial relief, states will need to balance irrigation priorities to ensure the entire Kharif season cycle is secure.

Controlling unnecessary exploitation and optimal water use will be crucial at this time. Additionally, expanding micro-irrigation techniques, promoting water-efficient crops, and local water conservation measures can provide additional protection for farmers.