Maximo Torero, the Chief Economist at the UN FAO, has warned India against rising food prices. The risk of food inflation will increase in India prior to the sowing season of Kharif because of the tensions between Iran and the United States that have led to shortages of fertilizers.

The Indian government has allocated a fertilizer subsidy worth $18.6 billion in 2026-27. However, there have been concerns over the availability of fertilizers due to tensions in international markets. For instance, 35 percent of fertilizers are sourced from the Gulf states through the Hormuz Strait, which is now blocked.

Speaking to ANI, Maximo Torero explained that if this crisis continues, India will have to pay more for imports. This will increase pressure on the prices of wheat, rice, and vegetables. India's domestic fertilizer factories are also unable to operate at full capacity. Due to gas shortages, these factories are operating at only 60 percent capacity. National Fertilizers Limited's plants in Punjab have restarted, but they face many challenges.

Kharif crop sowing begins in India in May. There is a 60 percent chance that the monsoon will be below normal in 2026. If the disruption in fertilizer trade continues for more than 60 days, it will have serious consequences. Farmers will use less fertilizer due to its high prices, leading to lower yields. This will have the greatest impact on crops like rice, maize, and wheat.

Global fertilizer prices have already increased by 50 to 80 percent. The Strait of Hormuz carries 30 percent of the world's fertilizer and 25 percent of its oil trade. Due to tensions there, ship insurance has become very expensive. Tanker traffic has fallen by 90 to 95 percent.

According to the FAO, this crisis could reduce farmers' incomes worldwide by up to five percent. Fuel prices will also increase irrigation and transportation costs. If this situation persists for a long time, global economic growth could fall by 1.7 percent. This will increase inflation and slow development. This will have a profound impact on India as well as countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Kenya.