The briefing was aimed at giving international buyers a clearer picture of Indonesia’s regulatory direction and easing market concerns over the availability of palm oil, as the country remains the world’s largest producer with a 57.5% share of global supply.
Three Policy Shifts Reshaping Indonesia’s CPO Trade
Dr. Hasan outlined a comprehensive overview of the government’s latest policies affecting the industry and its buyers — covering stock levels, export levies and reference prices — alongside three structural reforms taking effect between 2026 and 2027:
- Single-Gate Export via PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI): A new governance framework channels exports of strategic natural resources such as coal, CPO and ferro alloy through the state-owned entity DSI. The rollout has two phases: a Transition Phase (June 1–December 31, 2026), in which exporters continue transacting directly with foreign buyers while reporting to DSI, followed by an Implementation Phase (from January 1, 2027), in which DSI takes over as exporter of record for all strategic commodity shipments, contracts, permits, levies and foreign-exchange receipts.
- Strategic Minerals and Commodities Exchange (BMKS): A new commodities exchange, targeted to launch January 1, 2027 under the supervision of Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority (OJK), is designed to establish an independent Indonesia Reference Price (IRP) for strategic commodities including palm oil. GAPKI has voiced support for the initiative, conditioned on seven governance expectations: freedom from conflicts of interest, leveraging Indonesia’s dominant market position, high trading liquidity and volume, full traceability, transparent price discovery, strong data interoperability among regulators, and cost efficiency for industry participants.
- B50 Biodiesel Mandate: Indonesia is shifting its biodiesel blending mandate toward B50, with full implementation targeted for 2027. GAPKI says current domestic biofuel production capacity is sufficient to support the mandate, but cautions that rising domestic consumption will progressively reduce the volume of CPO available for export, a trend expected to deepen in 2027 with knock-on effects on state revenue and industry financing.
2027 Outlook: Tighter Supply, Firmer Global Prices
GAPKI expects the combined effect of these three policies to reshape global palm oil supply and pricing dynamics once they take full effect in 2027. On the supply side, full implementation of the B50 mandate is projected to absorb a larger share of domestic CPO output for biodiesel, further narrowing export volumes compared with 2026, while the shift to single-gate exports via DSI will centralize and tighten oversight of Indonesia’s export contracts, permits and foreign-exchange flows.
On pricing, GAPKI expects BMKS to produce an Indonesia Reference Price that reflects genuine market supply and demand and reduces reliance on overseas benchmark exchanges, giving Indonesia greater influence over global palm oil price formation. Taken together, GAPKI anticipates that tighter Indonesian export supply in the short term could put upward pressure on global palm oil prices, given the country’s position as the world’s largest producer and exporter, and has stressed that sound governance in implementing all three reforms will be essential to avoid disrupting supply certainty for international buyers.
