As per predictions by the Indian Meteorological Department, this year, the southwest monsoon would be weak, with the amount of rainfall expected to be less than usual by 10%. However, many wonder whether the global warming effect would result in a weakening of the monsoon or even droughts in India. According to Professor Anil K. Gupta of IIT Kharagpur (also former director of the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology), based on ancient life studies, the monsoon will never be stripped away from India.

According to him, the monsoon has been around for the last 13 million years because of the unique geographical setup of India and the presence of towering Himalayas on its northern side. Until the geography of the country remains the same, the monsoon shall remain. Professor Gupta refers to the monsoon as the soul of India - it has been around since the past, exists now, and will continue to be there in the future too. But that does not imply it has been stable all along. Records of ancient times suggest that the monsoon has witnessed great variations over time. For example, a severe drought occurred across Asia about 4,200 years ago, resulting in people moving places. These fluctuations were natural, predating human intervention.

According to Prof. Gupta, climate change will not eliminate the monsoon but may intensify it. Extreme events will increase in the future. Heavy rains, such as floods, will occur in some areas, while droughts will occur in others. Increasing heat is likely to bring stronger winds and more rainfall, but the distribution will be uneven. This is both positive and challenging for monsoon-dependent agriculture, water resources, and the economy. The concern should not be the monsoon's disappearance, but its changing nature and increasing uncertainty.

The southwest monsoon is expected to hit the Kerala coast on June 4. The Meteorological Department predicted on Tuesday that the monsoon could arrive in Kerala around June 4th. Pre-monsoon rains have intensified in coastal states including Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry.

According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon usually arrives in Kerala around June 1st, but this time it has been slightly delayed due to weak westerly winds.

Meteorologists say that current conditions remain favorable. Consequently, the monsoon is expected to advance rapidly over the Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and parts of the Bay of Bengal in the next two to three days. If westerly winds remain favorable, the monsoon could cover the entire country by June 30th.